Every few winters the weather people start saying "El Niño" a lot, and every few winters somebody at the bar asks what it actually means for Telluride. This year they've upgraded it to "Super El Niño." Here's the straight version, from people who live at 9,545 feet and check the snow stake before coffee.
What NOAA actually said
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center has an El Niño Advisory in effect. In August and again in September it put the odds of a very strong El Niño this fall and winter above 90 percent. The latest update, on October 8, says it is still strengthening: better than 83 percent odds that a strong-to-very-strong event holds through January to March, and an 83 percent chance that October to December comes in as the strongest El Niño since 1950. "Very strong" is the top of their scale. They don't say "super." Forecasters do, for the handful of winters that have cleared that bar since records got good: 1972-73, 1982-83, 1997-98, 2015-16 and 2023-24. This would be the sixth.
NOAA updates the outlook on the second Thursday of every month, and we update this post after each one. Next update: November 12.
What it has meant here
El Niño drags the Pacific storm track south. Storms that would normally cross Wyoming and the northern Rockies come across Arizona and New Mexico instead, and the San Juans are the first big wall they hit. That's us. The southern Colorado mountains are usually the winners in a big El Niño, and Telluride tends to run near or above its normal snowfall in those years, with the best odds of a strong start and a strong finish.
Ask anyone who was here in March of 2016. They'll tell you about it whether you ask or not.
This winter's early-season offer
Book 3 nights or more November 25th – December 24th and save 15-25% based on room type. Stay 4 nights or longer and we'll add a $100 Alloy Kitchen gift card upon arrival.
The short version
- As of October 8, NOAA gives an 83 percent chance this is the strongest El Niño since 1950.
- In the big El Niño winters the San Juans usually came out ahead.
- Book 3 nights or more November 25th – December 24th and save 15-25% based on room type; stay 4 nights or longer for a $100 Alloy Kitchen gift card.
What to do with this
Book the trip. Telluride opens November 26 and closes April 4. Pick a week, put your name on a cabin before the holidays fill, and let the Pacific do what it's going to do.
See this winter's offers
Sources: NOAA Climate Prediction Center, ENSO Diagnostic Discussions, August 13, September 10 and October 8, 2026; OpenSnow Telluride winter previews; Telluride Ski Resort 2026-27 season dates. Last updated October 23, 2026, after the October 8 NOAA outlook.
