Every few winters the weather people start saying "El Niño" a lot, and every few winters somebody at the bar asks what it actually means for Telluride. This year they've upgraded it to "Super El Niño," which sounds like a taco. Here's the straight version, from people who live at 9,545 feet and check the snow stake before coffee.
What NOAA actually said
On August 13 the Climate Prediction Center put out an El Niño Advisory and gave better than 90 percent odds of a very strong one this fall and winter. "Very strong" is the top of their scale. They don't say "super." Forecasters do, for the handful of winters that have cleared that bar since records got good: 1972-73, 1982-83, 1997-98, 2015-16 and 2023-24. Five winters. This would be the sixth.
NOAA updates the outlook on the second Thursday of every month. We'll update this post right after each one, so if you're reading in November, scroll to the bottom for the latest.
What it has meant here
El Niño drags the Pacific storm track south. Storms that would normally cross Wyoming and the northern Rockies come across Arizona and New Mexico instead, and the San Juans are the first big wall they hit. That's us. The southern Colorado mountains are usually the winners in a big El Niño, and Telluride tends to run near or above its normal snowfall in those years, with the best odds of a strong start and a strong finish.
Ask anyone who was here in March of 2016. They'll tell you about it whether you ask or not.
What it has not meant
A guarantee. The last super El Niño, 2023-24, ran below normal from November into January, then caught up in a hurry and finished above normal by the middle of March. The 2015-16 winter was good to the San Juans from early on. Every big El Niño is its own animal.
The strongest signal in the record is January through March, not Thanksgiving week. If you're planning a trip around powder, plan it for the back half of the season and let December be a pleasant surprise.
How we're covering it
We don't control the weather. We've tried. So this winter's offer comes with a cancellation guarantee built for a big winter and covered if it isn't: flexible cancellation, and a snow clause for the days the mountain doesn't cooperate. The terms go live with the winter offer on October 1. Until then, book direct and ask the desk; they'll tell you exactly where it stands.
The gondola runs either way. The pool is heated either way. Alloy Kitchen is open either way, and the fire on the deck doesn't check the snow report.
The short version
- NOAA puts the odds of a very strong El Niño above 90 percent.
- In the big El Niño winters the San Juans usually came out ahead, mostly from January on.
- December is a coin flip in the record. Plan the powder trip for the back half.
- This winter's offer comes with a cancellation guarantee. Terms live October 1; book direct and you're covered by whatever we announce.
What to do with this
Book the trip. Telluride opens November 26 and closes April 4. Pick a week, put your name on a cabin before the holidays fill, and let the Pacific do what it's going to do. The log lodge has been standing here since 1999 through good winters and thin ones, and the view from the hot tub has never once depended on the snow stake.
See this winter's offers
Sources: NOAA Climate Prediction Center, ENSO Diagnostic Discussion, August 13, 2026; OpenSnow Telluride winter previews; Telluride Ski Resort 2026-27 season dates. Updated after each monthly NOAA outlook.
